Wednesday, October 06, 2004
The Amazing, The Spectacular, The One And Only …
... Brandon Inge?
There is no one (except the most optimistic of his immediate family members) who, or nothing (not even the most optimistic of PECOTA projections) that, could have predicted that this flailing, wimpy, MLB-worst hitter of a year ago today would blossom into the .287/.340/.453 hitter of 2004.
The question is, then: is his performance this season sustainable? Does it represent actual improvement, a move to another level of hitting, or is this more like a Norm Cash-esque spike season wrought Inge-sized?
To try to determine that, let's review a few of the statistics that might help diagnose his season and provide a realistic prognosis.
Q: Is Inge more patient at the plate this year? Is he taking more pitches and thus seeing better pitches to hit?
A: Inge's pitches per PA:
Year PA #Pit Pit/PA
2001 202 753 3.73
2002 351 1479 4.21
2003 366 1487 4.06
2004 458 1807 3.95
He may be seeing better pitches to hit, but it's may not be because he's seeing more pitches or is being more patient than before. What's missing from this analysis is how many balls and called strikes he took (more = more patient), and how many foul balls he hit (more = not more patient). But given the information at hand, it's safe to say that he's not more patient this year than before.
Q: Is Inge hitting with more power this year?
A: Inge's ISP (Isolated Power, SLG-AVG):
Year AVG SLG ISP
2001 .180 .238 .058
2002 .202 .333 .131
2003 .203 .339 .136
2004 .287 .453 .167
One saving grace of Inge's hitting profile had been that he's had pretty fair power for a catcher -- that is, not that which you would expect from the worst hitter in the majors. Inge had in fact average power, since AL catchers' positional ISP tends to be in the .125 to .140 range. This year Inge kicked it up a notch, to .167. Of course, he spent a little more than half his defensive innings at 3B, and his ISP this year is more reflective of a 3B positional average. But players don't hit better or worse based on the position they play (although you could argue that it might be so for catchers because of moving away from a more physically demanding position). That is, just because Inge moved to 3B doesn't mean he's going to hit like an average 3B all of a sudden, simply because of the move. So, I think we can call this a likely step up in power for Inge, particularly since at 27 he is at an age we see this kind of bump up in power.
Q: Was Inge consistent in his batting stats during the year?
A: Here's how Inge did on a month by month basis:
Month AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
April 54 .333 .410 .574 .984
May 68 .235 .307 .338 .645
June 43 .372 .431 .628 1.059
July 49 .204 .226 .408 .635
Aug 85 .306 .362 .424 .785
Sept 98 .286 .324 .408 .732
Oct 11 .273 .273 .727 1.000
Not real consistent, but then, it's not unusual to see players' monthly performances vary widely during the course of the year. (Even Barry Bonds varied from .472/.696/1.132/1.828 to .250/.532/.452/.1.074. What other player wouldn't want that worst month line of his?) However, you can see where the months of April and June stand out as being outstanding for Inge, and did a lot to increase his season numbers overall. The interesting thing here is that with more playing time late in the year, Inge did not regress to his MLB-worst form of prior years, instead posting a for-him-respectable batting line.
Q: How did Inge's BABIP fare this year versus prior years?
A: Inge's BABIP:
Year BABIP
2001 .230
2002 .272
2003 .243
2004 .322
This to me is the most interesting stat of all. BABIP stands for "batting average on balls in play", essentially subtracting home runs and strikeouts to see how a player hits when he hits the ball to where fielders could potentially turn it into an out. This number is generally stable for hitters, but could go up or down depending on whether there are sea-changes to the way the ball comes off the hitter's bat (less likely), and on whether the player is luckier and getting more seeing-eye hits than usual (more likely).
I believe in Inge's case, it's a little of both. A significant jump in BABIP along with a jump in ISP indicates that Inge may indeed be hitting the ball harder. It's more likely that hard-hit grounders will get through the infield being hard hit than soft-hit grounders, with a resulting increase in batting average. However, taken against the inconsistency in monthly performance shown above, where two months drove Inge's vast improvement for the year, it's also likely that Brandon Inge experienced more luck than usual during certain months.
OK, Chuck, so bottomline this for me.
I believe that Inge did experience some increase in hitting prowess this year, and that we will continue to see the benefits of this improvement into next year. However, I also believe that he has morphed into more of a .240/.300/.390 than into the .287/.340/.453 that we saw in 2004. That may be OK enough for a starting catcher, but that's not at all good for a starting 3B.
Inge has some value as a utility player, and I wouldn't mind keeping him around as a 25th player and using him in spot starts, sparing him no more than 250 PAs. But if the Tigers think that Brandon Inge is the answer to their 3B issue, I'm afraid they'll be in for a disappointment in 2005.
There is no one (except the most optimistic of his immediate family members) who, or nothing (not even the most optimistic of PECOTA projections) that, could have predicted that this flailing, wimpy, MLB-worst hitter of a year ago today would blossom into the .287/.340/.453 hitter of 2004.
The question is, then: is his performance this season sustainable? Does it represent actual improvement, a move to another level of hitting, or is this more like a Norm Cash-esque spike season wrought Inge-sized?
To try to determine that, let's review a few of the statistics that might help diagnose his season and provide a realistic prognosis.
Q: Is Inge more patient at the plate this year? Is he taking more pitches and thus seeing better pitches to hit?
A: Inge's pitches per PA:
Year PA #Pit Pit/PA
2001 202 753 3.73
2002 351 1479 4.21
2003 366 1487 4.06
2004 458 1807 3.95
He may be seeing better pitches to hit, but it's may not be because he's seeing more pitches or is being more patient than before. What's missing from this analysis is how many balls and called strikes he took (more = more patient), and how many foul balls he hit (more = not more patient). But given the information at hand, it's safe to say that he's not more patient this year than before.
Q: Is Inge hitting with more power this year?
A: Inge's ISP (Isolated Power, SLG-AVG):
Year AVG SLG ISP
2001 .180 .238 .058
2002 .202 .333 .131
2003 .203 .339 .136
2004 .287 .453 .167
One saving grace of Inge's hitting profile had been that he's had pretty fair power for a catcher -- that is, not that which you would expect from the worst hitter in the majors. Inge had in fact average power, since AL catchers' positional ISP tends to be in the .125 to .140 range. This year Inge kicked it up a notch, to .167. Of course, he spent a little more than half his defensive innings at 3B, and his ISP this year is more reflective of a 3B positional average. But players don't hit better or worse based on the position they play (although you could argue that it might be so for catchers because of moving away from a more physically demanding position). That is, just because Inge moved to 3B doesn't mean he's going to hit like an average 3B all of a sudden, simply because of the move. So, I think we can call this a likely step up in power for Inge, particularly since at 27 he is at an age we see this kind of bump up in power.
Q: Was Inge consistent in his batting stats during the year?
A: Here's how Inge did on a month by month basis:
Month AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
April 54 .333 .410 .574 .984
May 68 .235 .307 .338 .645
June 43 .372 .431 .628 1.059
July 49 .204 .226 .408 .635
Aug 85 .306 .362 .424 .785
Sept 98 .286 .324 .408 .732
Oct 11 .273 .273 .727 1.000
Not real consistent, but then, it's not unusual to see players' monthly performances vary widely during the course of the year. (Even Barry Bonds varied from .472/.696/1.132/1.828 to .250/.532/.452/.1.074. What other player wouldn't want that worst month line of his?) However, you can see where the months of April and June stand out as being outstanding for Inge, and did a lot to increase his season numbers overall. The interesting thing here is that with more playing time late in the year, Inge did not regress to his MLB-worst form of prior years, instead posting a for-him-respectable batting line.
Q: How did Inge's BABIP fare this year versus prior years?
A: Inge's BABIP:
Year BABIP
2001 .230
2002 .272
2003 .243
2004 .322
This to me is the most interesting stat of all. BABIP stands for "batting average on balls in play", essentially subtracting home runs and strikeouts to see how a player hits when he hits the ball to where fielders could potentially turn it into an out. This number is generally stable for hitters, but could go up or down depending on whether there are sea-changes to the way the ball comes off the hitter's bat (less likely), and on whether the player is luckier and getting more seeing-eye hits than usual (more likely).
I believe in Inge's case, it's a little of both. A significant jump in BABIP along with a jump in ISP indicates that Inge may indeed be hitting the ball harder. It's more likely that hard-hit grounders will get through the infield being hard hit than soft-hit grounders, with a resulting increase in batting average. However, taken against the inconsistency in monthly performance shown above, where two months drove Inge's vast improvement for the year, it's also likely that Brandon Inge experienced more luck than usual during certain months.
OK, Chuck, so bottomline this for me.
I believe that Inge did experience some increase in hitting prowess this year, and that we will continue to see the benefits of this improvement into next year. However, I also believe that he has morphed into more of a .240/.300/.390 than into the .287/.340/.453 that we saw in 2004. That may be OK enough for a starting catcher, but that's not at all good for a starting 3B.
Inge has some value as a utility player, and I wouldn't mind keeping him around as a 25th player and using him in spot starts, sparing him no more than 250 PAs. But if the Tigers think that Brandon Inge is the answer to their 3B issue, I'm afraid they'll be in for a disappointment in 2005.
