Tigers On The Beach: A Detroit Tigers Off-Season Weblog

PARTLY SUNNY, 72: Tigers complete 29-game turnaround, but still have long way to go - Freep 10/4

Goofy numerical wordplay aside, this appears to be a typical John Lowe article: valid on some fronts, off-base on others.

John is right in that the Tigers have a long way to go. Seventy-two wins is a great step, and more than the 66 that I myself had predicted (largely due to their overachievement in offense), but it's not a reason to pop the corks.

But John undermines his own credibility by stating that Comerica "achieved the difficult feat of being friendly to both the home run and the triple". While that's true of the triple, Comerica is absolutely not friendly to the home run, as this ESPN park factor analysis indicates. For those of you too lazy to click, Comerica yields 13% fewer home runs than the average park (23rd among MLB parks), but 79% more triples (tops in the majors by a hair). Given the ease with which reporters can check their assertions before they commit to them on paper, this kind of lazy reporting should not be tolerated.

Regarding Lowe's statistic that 58 home runs have landed between the new LF and old LF fences: If that's true, that would have reduced the total home runs at Comerica from 182 to 124 -- essentially making the park factor for HRs 59. That's probably right, since the HR park factor in 2000 was 61 and in 2001 was 69.

Interesting stat: The Tigers definitely were hurt by Comerica on the HR front, with 87 at home versus 114 on the road. Opponents, however clobbered HRs against Tiger pitching at the exact same rate in Comerica as on the road -- 95 each. Coincidental? Yes.

Interesting, too, how Higginson says he had "10 great years" in Detroit. I don't know whose record he's looking at, but it's more like two great years, four fair-to-decent years, and four lousy years.

GENE GUIDI: More moves needed for better '05 - Freep 10/4

There are basically five things Guidi says the Tigers need for next year. Let's take these in order, then let's add a few:

1. A couple of strong late inning arms.

I'm OK with this assertion. Tigers did well with Jamie Walker, Esteban Yan (despite Guidi's ambivalence) and Ugie (God bless him), but otherwise, we had the 3rd worst relief corps in the AL, and got positively awful performances from Al Levine (especially first half), the departed Darryl Patterson, Gary Knotts, and the soon-to-be-unemployed Steve Colyer. Relievers are cheap and plentiful.

2. A reliable CF

No argument here. I'm thinking offensively as well as defensively. Alex "Run 'Til You're Out" Sanchez is a disaster at the plate (despite his freakish ability to hit bunt singles), on the basepaths (19 SB but 13 CS) and in the field (9 errors, most in the AL, in just half a season; subpar range factor and zone rating). Nook had a very good tenure in CF this year, and while he's not as good at the plate as even Run 'Til You're Out, he is only 24 and he has more future than Alex, who might make good trade bait. Might Nook be ready for prime time next year? I know Curtis Granderson is considered the CF of the future, but Nook could make a good placeholder until that day comes.

3. Top-drawer starting pitcher

This is on the wish list of many teams. Why should we be any different? There are lots of good names out there, too many to even speculate. But I wouldn't mind seeing the Tigers make overtures for Brad Radke, Jaret Wright, Odalis Perez or Matt Clement. I think this is the move to make for 2005 given the state of our system. Dobrowski is spinning it as a strength, but with the likes of James Baldwin, Shane Loux, Andy Van Hekken, Pat Ahearne and Matt Roney down there, I'm not holding my breath. Preston Larrison and Kenny Baugh are still made of glass, and Kyle Sleeth is probably due no earlier than 2006 and possibly 2007.

4. Another thumper in the middle of the lineup

Really? What do you think of Marcus Thames? I think he's ready.

5. Better defense

Tigers finished 12th out of 14 teams in defensive efficiency, with a rating of 0.6859. But is this really a major problem? The top team in the AL had a rating of 0.7013 and bottom team had a 0.6766; the AL average is 0.6907. Given how close the ratings are from the top to bottom, just how mission-critical is improving your defense? I know 144 errors looks bad, and allowing 70 runners on errors seems awful -- but it's not like this makes a difference of 10 or 15 wins. Maybe 2 or 3 -- maybe.

Now while we're at it, how about a couple more?

A real major-league 3B

Despite his out-of-nowhere-good-(for-him)-season, Brandon Inge ain't a major league 3B. We have nobody in the system ready to take it over, so we should look to free agents. Adrian Beltre is out of our reach, but how about Corey Koskie or Bill Mueller (if the Red Sox don't pick up his option)?

Better production out of 1B

Twenty-seven home runs not withstanding, Carlos Pena is running out of time to be at least an average producer out of the position (11th in VORPr among 1B with 250+ PAs). The guy is 26, so this is likely everything we're going to see out of him, although a career surge is possible. I could withstand maybe another year at a couple million, but I'd prefer to find something better out of 1B, and soon.

# posted by Chuck Hildebrandt @ 11:47 AM